Listen and subscribe to Opening Bid on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. Investors should brace for a leaner stock market and economy as Trump tariffs and retaliations from trading partners like Canada, Europe, and China take hold. Those are the gloomy calls from BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin.
BCA Research is an independent research firm that has been in business since 1942 and is among the largest independent macroeconomic forecasters to institutions. And Berezin has been an economist for more than 30 years, with stints at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Goldman Sachs, and now BCA Research.
Berezin gained attention this year for being the lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025. Further, he correctly called that in 2022 there would be no US recession — despite most on the Street bracing for one. In a new episode of Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast (see video above), Berezin doubled down on his recent call that there is a 75% chance of a US recession this year. In a new wrinkle shared with me, Berezin believes the US may already be in a mild recession. He forecasts slight negative economic growth for the year as consumers pull back amid a more inflationary environment, thanks to a global trade war.
